Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.057350 2.178978 2.306941 2.452102 2.612819 2.786026 2.987768
2025-08-17 1.861997 2.027532 2.209972 2.427705 2.682850 2.975399 3.340748
2025-08-24 1.732246 1.921123 2.135882 2.401364 2.725411 3.114577 3.627868
2025-08-31 1.648763 1.855545 2.096674 2.403582 2.791441 3.276618 3.949303
2025-09-07 1.587606 1.809180 2.073232 2.418042 2.867633 3.451631 4.301019
2025-09-14 1.513295 1.740812 2.016460 2.383609 2.874265 3.531300 4.525808
2025-09-21 1.447644 1.678681 1.962577 2.347265 2.872653 3.595744 4.731405
2025-09-28 1.386014 1.618045 1.906579 2.303326 2.855468 3.633956 4.898105
2025-10-05 1.362938 1.604643 1.909785 2.337343 2.947137 3.834980 5.344043
2025-10-12 1.343162 1.594043 1.915345 2.373775 3.043474 4.050386 5.844535
2025-10-19 1.321719 1.579938 1.914971 2.401013 3.127135 4.252895 6.354412
2025-10-26 1.287320 1.547121 1.887516 2.387608 3.147706 4.354820 6.694513
2025-11-02 1.253537 1.514379 1.859396 2.372587 3.166033 4.457036 7.058646
2025-11-09 1.218954 1.479319 1.826586 2.348812 3.168680 4.532437 7.382452
2025-11-16 1.186296 1.445675 1.794275 2.323828 3.167136 4.599459 7.700182
2025-11-23 1.164472 1.426005 1.780668 2.325929 3.209225 4.748102 8.229914
2025-11-30 1.147630 1.412514 1.775103 2.339632 3.270969 4.938967 8.904601
2025-12-07 1.117692 1.379859 1.740764 2.306997 3.251661 4.972891 9.197143
2025-12-14 1.088781 1.347836 1.706271 2.272535 3.226909 4.993563 9.460576
2025-12-21 1.059169 1.314070 1.668210 2.230847 3.187040 4.980366 9.630243
2025-12-28 1.052279 1.312122 1.676552 2.263124 3.279558 5.245871 10.666897
2026-01-04 1.046304 1.311188 1.686182 2.297674 3.378401 5.537361 11.898731
2026-01-11 1.038181 1.306862 1.690469 2.323494 3.462874 5.809169 13.192423